Mortgage Rates

FY 2025

6.5% "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Home Sales

FY 2025

4.9 million units "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Home Price Growth

FY 2025

4.1% "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Single-Family Mortgage Originations

FY 2025

$2.0 trillion "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Multifamily Rent Growth

FY 2025

2% to 2.5% "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Multifamily Vacancy Rates

FY 2025

6.25% "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Multifamily Market Originations

FY 2025

$325 billion to $365 billion "

no current guidance

no current guidance

Consistent Earnings Strength and Profitability

Discussed across Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 with steady net income, positive earnings streaks, and consistent revenue generation " " "

Q2 2025 emphasized strong metrics despite a 9% drop in net income vs. Q1 and slight revenue increases, with a continued focus on profitability " " " "

Recurring strong performance, though earnings show a modest decline in Q2 2025 compared to prior quarters " " "

Robust Liquidity and Capital Position Growth

Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 highlighted growing net worth (from $90.5B to $98B and $95B), capital build-up, and liquidity provision improvements " " "

In Q2 2025, net worth reached $101.6B with clear progress in capital building despite a reported $29B capital deficit " "

Consistent upward trend in net worth and capital growth, with continued focus on closing the capital gap " " "

Credit Quality and Risk Management with Shifting Sentiment

Q1 2025 detailed strong single‐family credit profiles and credit risk transfers; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 discussed SDQ rates, credit risk transfers, and some rising challenges " " "

Q2 2025 notes modest improvements in SDQ rates alongside an uptick in 30-day delinquencies and regional softness, prompting a higher allowance build " " "

Ongoing focus on credit quality with emerging signs of stress and adjustments in loss allowances in Q2 2025 " " "

Regulatory Capital Adequacy and Capital Shortfall Concerns

In Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, significant capital shortfalls were noted ($140B and $146B respectively) with some improvements (reduction by $6B in Q1 and a $17B reduction in Q3 2024) " " "

Q2 2025 reports a $29B deficit (due to senior preferred stock not counting) and progress via $45B of CET1 capital built since 2022, showing continued effort towards meeting CET1 requirements " "

Steady progress in capital building is visible, though the capital shortfall remains a concern; improvements are gradual " " "

Mortgage Origination Outlook and Housing Market Dynamics

Q1 2025 provided detailed outlooks with forecasts for higher originations in 2025; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 described steady originations, home sales numbers, mortgage rate levels, and pricing trends " " " "

Q2 2025 emphasized muted refinancing activity, seasonal trends boosting acquisitions slightly, and noted regional home price softness amid elevated rates " " "

A consistently cautious outlook persists, with Q2 2025 reflecting muted activity and regional price softness amidst seasonality " " "

Economic Headwinds Impacting Loan Acquisitions

Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 highlighted pressures from elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, limited housing supply, and the lock-in effect affecting acquisitions " " "

In Q2 2025, headwinds remain evident with muted refinancing, seasonal factors, and regional declines in home prices contributing to slightly lower acquisition volumes " " "

Economic pressures continue to inhibit loan acquisitions; similar headwinds persist across periods with Q2 showing seasonal nuances " " "

Multifamily Segment Vulnerabilities

Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 noted vulnerabilities via declining property values and rising SDQ rates; Q3 2024 added potential fraud investigation and significant provision for credit losses " " " "

Q2 2025 highlighted declining property values, increased multifamily charge-offs and delinquencies, and stressed efforts to combat fraud as a risk mitigation measure " "

Multifamily vulnerabilities remain a recurring concern with persistent property value declines and rising delinquency metrics, now combined with heightened fraud vigilance " " "

Shifting Home Price Growth and Affordability Trends

Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 reported rising home prices (around 5%–5.8%), affordability challenges, and forecasts of moderated price growth in the next year; Q3 2024 similarly discussed significant home price increases and affordability concerns " " " "

In Q2 2025, a lower actual and forecasted home price growth is noted along with regional softness and increasing DTI ratios, reflecting rising affordability pressures despite moderating growth trends " "

While home price growth remains positive, Q2 2025 indicates a slight moderation and more pronounced regional softness, accentuating ongoing affordability challenges " " "